Commodity Price Rise Not Necessarily Inflation Warning

As we head into mid 2021, commodity prices shows no signs of slowing down. Some say this is a warning sign of oncoming inflation. Intuitively, this could be interpreted as an indicator inflation. But commodity prices and consumer price inflation (CPI) are actually a lot less correlated than what most people may think. The two [...]

Common Knowledge: Why I Stopped Avoiding Mass Media

TL;DR Common knowledge is information that everyone believes is shared by everyone else. It's not what the crowd believes. It's what the crowd believes what the crowd believes.  It's an integral part of game theory and critical in understanding how group behaviour changes based on new information. While this concept may not be entirely new, [...]