As we head into mid 2021, commodity prices shows no signs of slowing down. Some say this is a warning sign of oncoming inflation. Intuitively, this could be interpreted as an indicator inflation. But commodity prices and consumer price inflation (CPI) are actually a lot less correlated than what most people may think. The two [...]
If you liked Nassim Taleb's books - Antifragile, Black Swan etc - then you'll love Mandelbrot's Misbehaviour of Markets. Benoit Mandelbrot is one of the greatest mathematicians of our time. Most renowned for his work on fractals (including the famous Mandelbrot set), he applies a complexity science lens to financial markets. As with most transdisciplinary [...]
TL;DR Exploring oil geopolitics is a useful approach to understanding how the world works for two reasons. First, observing the energy flows within a complex system provides a first principles based perspective of that system. Second, getting a grasp on oil politics prompts one to read up on and synthesize ancillary topics such as history, [...]
TL;DR Common knowledge is information that everyone believes is shared by everyone else. It's not what the crowd believes. It's what the crowd believes what the crowd believes. It's an integral part of game theory and critical in understanding how group behaviour changes based on new information. While this concept may not be entirely new, [...]
