Commodity Price Rise Not Necessarily Inflation Warning

As we head into mid 2021, commodity prices shows no signs of slowing down. Some say this is a warning sign of oncoming inflation. Intuitively, this could be interpreted as an indicator inflation. But commodity prices and consumer price inflation (CPI) are actually a lot less correlated than what most people may think. The two [...]

Ergodicity: the Most Over-Looked Assumption

Consider two ways of making purple. Method 1: Alternate red and blue squares. With enough squares, purple emerges. Method 2: Alternate red and blue at various time intervals. With short enough intervals, purple emerges. Method 1 made changes in the space (ensemble) dimension. Method 2 made changes in the time (temporal) dimension. Both converged to [...]