Commodity Price Rise Not Necessarily Inflation Warning

As we head into mid 2021, commodity prices shows no signs of slowing down. Some say this is a warning sign of oncoming inflation. Intuitively, this could be interpreted as an indicator inflation. But commodity prices and consumer price inflation (CPI) are actually a lot less correlated than what most people may think. The two [...]

Ergodicity: the Most Over-Looked Assumption

Consider two ways of making purple. Method 1: Alternate red and blue squares. With enough squares, purple emerges. Method 2: Make square alternate between red and blue. With short enough time intervals, purple emerges. First method made changes in the space (ensemble) dimension. Second method made changes in the time (temporal) dimension. Both converged to [...]