Commodity Price Rise Not Necessarily Inflation Warning

As we head into mid 2021, commodity prices shows no signs of slowing down. Some say this is a warning sign of oncoming inflation. Intuitively, this could be interpreted as an indicator inflation. But commodity prices and consumer price inflation (CPI) are actually a lot less correlated than what most people may think. The two [...]

Quarterly reading list [2020 Q2]

Commentary on every book I read in the quarter, covering: why I chose to read it, some insights and quotes, and review. Not intended to be a summary.   Why We Sleep, Matthew Walker (2017) It's a truism to say sleep is important - along with nutrition, stress management, and exercise. Yet I still found [...]

Ergodicity: the Most Over-Looked Assumption

Consider two ways of making purple. Method 1: Alternate red and blue squares. With enough squares, purple emerges. Method 2: Make square alternate between red and blue. With short enough time intervals, purple emerges. First method made changes in the space (ensemble) dimension. Second method made changes in the time (temporal) dimension. Both converged to [...]